Sneaky Crate
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$17.64
35.27 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $15.87 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
57.70%
423 openings, odds method
Variance
16.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 53
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
93.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 423 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$17.6435.27 coins$145290 coins8.21x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $17.64 | 90.00% | 14 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 5.3%extraordinary 0.6%covert knife 1.0%Rare 93.1%best hit —