Sniper Nest
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$6.99
13.97 coins
Advertised RTP
89.97%
EV $6.28 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.05%
27K openings, odds method
Variance
80.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 200
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 27K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 400 | $658 1,316 coins | 26.2% | 74 | 67.5 | 1.10× |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 400 | $657 1,315 coins | 26.2% | 69 | 67.5 | 1.02× |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 400 | $639 1,278 coins | 25.4% | 66 | 67.5 | 0.98× |
| StatTrak™ AWP | BOOM (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified | 1 in 400 | $557 1,113 coins | 22.1% | 71 | 67.5 | 1.05× |
| SCAR-20 | Sand Mesh (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 33.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.1% | 8,755 | 8904.1 | 0.98× |
| G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 66.0% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.1% | 17,947 | 17808.1 | 1.01× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.97%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $6.99 | 89.97% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 0.3%covert 0.5%Classified 0.3%consumer 33.0%industrial 66.0%best hit $658 (94.23x)