Snorlax
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$307.43
615 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $276.69 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
113.16%
1,002 openings, odds method
Variance
60.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 77
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,002 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary | 1 in 1,429 | $73.5K 147,047 coins | 18.6% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert | 1 in 769 | $24.8K 49,625 coins | 11.7% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.54× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $9,925 19,850 coins | 17.9% | 4 | 5.0 | 0.80× |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby | 1 in 167 | $8,079 16,159 coins | 17.5% | 5 | 6.0 | 0.83× |
| Sticker | captainMo (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary | 1 in 118 | $5,513 11,026 coins | 16.9% | 4 | 8.5 | 0.47× |
| Sticker | suNny (Gold) | Krakow 2017sticker · Extraordinary | 1 in 87 | $2,528 5,057 coins | 10.5% | 10 | 11.5 | 0.87× |
| ★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 59 | $1,113 2,226 coins | 6.8% | 22 | 17.0 | 1.29× |
| G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 95.0% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 953 | 951.9 | 1.00× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendarypiyeyooo$307615 coins$73.5K147,047 coins239.2x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert$307615 coins$24.8K49,625 coins80.71x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covertVinnie2524$307615 coins$24.8K49,625 coins80.71x
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$307615 coins$9,92519,850 coins32.28x
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$307615 coins$9,92519,850 coins32.28x
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$307615 coins$9,92519,850 coins32.28x
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$307615 coins$9,92519,850 coins32.28x
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$307615 coins$8,07916,159 coins26.28x
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$307615 coins$8,07916,159 coins26.28x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $307 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.1%covert 1.2%extraordinary 2.6%Extraordinary 1.1%industrial 95.0%best hit $73.5K (239.2x)