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SnowForge

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$190.99
382 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $171.88 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
61.90%
112 openings, odds method
Variance
7.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
7 days
96 openings · below min
30 days
112 openings · below min
since tracking started
112 openings · below min
9.0%69.0%129.0%

Small sample. 112 openings and 4.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h0———
7d9672.21%±56.2—odds
30d11261.90%±52.1—odds
All11261.90%±52.1—odds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 112 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2014sticker · high1 in 200$2,877 5,754 coins8.4%00.6—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 21 in 200$2,643 5,286 coins7.7%10.6—
Sticker | Ninjas in Pyjamas (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable1 in 200$2,539 5,078 coins7.4%00.6—
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 41 in 200$2,174 4,347 coins6.3%00.6—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl1 in 200$1,853 3,705 coins5.4%00.6—
AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 200$1,828 3,656 coins5.3%20.6—
★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Factory New)gloves · legendary1 in 200$1,788 3,576 coins5.2%10.6—
Sticker | compLexity Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable1 in 200$1,723 3,447 coins5.0%00.6—
★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 21 in 200$1,707 3,413 coins5.0%00.6—
★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 200$1,581 3,163 coins4.6%00.6—
★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife1 in 100$1,551 3,102 coins9.0%01.10.00×
Souvenir M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Classified1 in 100$1,381 2,761 coins8.0%01.10.00×
★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 100$1,331 2,662 coins7.7%11.10.89×
Sticker | Team LDLC.com | Katowice 2014sticker · high1 in 100$1,316 2,632 coins7.7%11.10.89×
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 100$1,252 2,504 coins7.3%21.11.79×
UMP-45 | Mudder (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer90.0%$0.01 0.03 coins0.0%104100.81.03×
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2$191382 coins$2,6435,286 coins13.84x
AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert$191382 coins$1,8283,656 coins9.57x
AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert$191382 coins$1,8283,656 coins9.57x
★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Factory New)gloves · legendary$191382 coins$1,7883,576 coins9.36x
★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert$191382 coins$1,3312,662 coins6.97x
Sticker | Team LDLC.com | Katowice 2014sticker · high$191382 coins$1,3162,632 coins6.89x
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$191382 coins$1,2522,504 coins6.56x
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$191382 coins$1,2522,504 coins6.56x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
UMP-45 | Mudder (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$191382 coins$0.010.03 coins0.00x
UMP-45 | Mudder (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$191382 coins$0.010.03 coins0.00x
UMP-45 | Mudder (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$191382 coins$0.010.03 coins0.00x
UMP-45 | Mudder (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$191382 coins$0.010.03 coins0.00x
UMP-45 | Mudder (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$191382 coins$0.010.03 coins0.00x
UMP-45 | Mudder (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerBrokeCalls$191382 coins$0.010.03 coins0.00x
UMP-45 | Mudder (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$191382 coins$0.010.03 coins0.00x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2$191382 coins$2,6435,286 coins13.84x
UMP-45 | Mudder (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$191382 coins$0.010.03 coins0.00x
UMP-45 | Mudder (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$191382 coins$0.010.03 coins0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$19190.00%16
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedhigh 1.5%covert 5.0%remarkable 1.0%legendary 0.5%other 1.0%Classified 1.0%consumer 90.0%best hit $2,643 (13.84x)