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Snowman

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$27.78
55.55 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $24.99 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.81%
9,053 openings, odds method
Variance
42.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 154
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
672 openings · below min
7 days
91.25%±14.298,041 openings
30 days
90.81%±13.479,053 openings
since tracking started
90.81%±13.479,053 openings
27.0%77.3%127.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h67277.32%±49.4—odds
7d8,04191.25%±14.3+0.2σodds
30d9,05390.81%±13.5+0.1σodds
All9,05390.81%±13.5+0.1σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,053 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 41 in 1,000$2,174 4,347 coins8.7%89.10.88×
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 1,000$2,125 4,249 coins8.5%89.10.88×
★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint (Factory New)gloves · legendary1 in 1,000$2,109 4,219 coins8.4%109.11.10×
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 41 in 1,000$2,023 4,047 coins8.1%109.11.10×
★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Factory New)gloves · legendary1 in 400$1,788 3,576 coins17.9%3322.61.46×
★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 400$1,534 3,068 coins15.3%1522.60.66×
Souvenir Dual Berettas | Cobalt Quartz (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted1 in 100$293 587 coins11.7%8690.50.95×
★ M9 Bayonet | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · sunny1 in 100$279 559 coins11.2%8090.50.88×
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Bright Water (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert1 in 100$123 246 coins4.9%9290.51.02×
StatTrak™ P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 100$117 235 coins4.7%8990.50.98×
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 1,000$117 234 coins0.5%109.11.10×
XM1014 | Slipstream (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec95.0%$0.01 0.02 coins0.0%8,6128600.41.00×
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$27.7855.55 coins$2,1744,347 coins78.26x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4FilthyDaDegen$27.7855.55 coins$2,1744,347 coins78.26x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$27.7855.55 coins$2,1744,347 coins78.26x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$27.7855.55 coins$2,1744,347 coins78.26x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$27.7855.55 coins$2,1744,347 coins78.26x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$27.7855.55 coins$2,1744,347 coins78.26x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$27.7855.55 coins$2,1744,347 coins78.26x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$27.7855.55 coins$2,1744,347 coins78.26x
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire$27.7855.55 coins$2,1254,249 coins76.49x
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire$27.7855.55 coins$2,1254,249 coins76.49x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
XM1014 | Slipstream (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$27.7855.55 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
XM1014 | Slipstream (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$27.7855.55 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
XM1014 | Slipstream (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$27.7855.55 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
XM1014 | Slipstream (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$27.7855.55 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
Souvenir Dual Berettas | Cobalt Quartz (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$27.7855.55 coins$293587 coins10.56x
XM1014 | Slipstream (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$27.7855.55 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
XM1014 | Slipstream (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$27.7855.55 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
XM1014 | Slipstream (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$27.7855.55 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
XM1014 | Slipstream (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$27.7855.55 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
XM1014 | Slipstream (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$27.7855.55 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$27.7889.99%12
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 1.3%legendary 0.4%extraordinary 0.3%restricted 1.0%sunny 1.0%Covert 1.0%covert knife 0.1%milspec 95.0%best hit $2,174 (78.26x)