Solomon's Reign
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$21.41
42.82 coins
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $19.27 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
47.34%
340 openings, odds method
Variance
31.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 95
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
87.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 340 openings and 3.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 340 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3$21.4142.82 coins$8991,799 coins42.01x
StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$21.4142.82 coins$6571,315 coins30.70x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $21.41 | 89.98% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 9.3%restricted 12.2%industrial 10.5%consumer 68.0%best hit $899 (42.01x)