Sovereign Drop
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.54
5.07 coins
Advertised RTP
89.82%
EV $2.28 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.17%
1,883 openings, odds method
Variance
23.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
25.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,883 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert | 1 in 100,000 | $2,792 5,584 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Sticker | Ninjas in Pyjamas (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable | 1 in 100,000 | $2,539 5,078 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Galil AR | Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 1 in 20 | $10.64 21.27 coins | 23.4% | 92 | 94.2 | 0.98× |
| SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $10.25 20.5 coins | 22.5% | 75 | 94.2 | 0.80× |
| MP7 | Asterion (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 15.0% | $2.89 5.77 coins | 19.0% | 291 | 282.4 | 1.03× |
| Nova | Moon in Libra (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 15.0% | $2.55 5.09 coins | 16.8% | 319 | 282.4 | 1.13× |
| Dual Berettas | Cartel (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 20.0% | $0.81 1.63 coins | 7.2% | 349 | 376.6 | 0.93× |
| MP9 | Dart (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 40.0% | $0.51 1.01 coins | 8.9% | 757 | 753.2 | 1.01× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.82%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.54 | 89.82% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%remarkable 0.0%#4b69ff 5.0%classified 5.0%consumer 30.0%mil spec 60.0%best hit —