Spew
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$5.92
11.83 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $5.32 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.15%
1,219 openings, odds method
Variance
15.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
22.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
55.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,219 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Field-Tested)gloves · epic | 1 in 10,000 | $1,885 3,771 coins | 3.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 5,000 | $545 1,090 coins | 2.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ Moto Gloves | Transport (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 2,000 | $419 837 coins | 3.9% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| USP-S | Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 22.0% | $11.22 22.44 coins | 46.4% | 272 | 268.2 | 1.01× |
| MP9 | Hydra (Factory New)weapon · classified | 22.0% | $10.64 21.27 coins | 44.0% | 284 | 268.2 | 1.06× |
| Five-SeveN | Coolant (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 20.0% | $0.03 0.05 coins | 0.1% | 253 | 243.8 | 1.04× |
| Glock-18 | Death Rattle (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 20.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 223 | 243.8 | 0.91× |
| FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 15.9% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 186 | 194.1 | 0.96× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Moto Gloves | Transport (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryJimmyV$5.9211.83 coins$419837 coins70.79x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5.92 | 89.99% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedepic 0.0%extraordinary 0.1%classified 44.0%consumer 20.0%industrial 20.0%#4b69ff 15.9%best hit $419 (70.79x)