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Spider Karambit

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$150.75
302 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $135.67 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
104.07%
524 openings, odds method
Variance
8.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
46 openings · below min
7 days
116.60%±28.96374 openings
30 days
104.07%±24.47524 openings
since tracking started
104.07%±24.47524 openings
42.5%125.7%209.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h46125.60%±82.6—odds
7d374116.60%±29.0+1.8σodds
30d524104.07%±24.5+1.1σodds
All524104.07%±24.5+1.1σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 532 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 500$4,209 8,418 coins6.2%21.11.88×
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald1 in 333$3,288 6,576 coins7.3%41.62.51×
★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint (Factory New)gloves · legendary1 in 250$2,109 4,219 coins6.2%02.10.00×
Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert1 in 200$1,661 3,323 coins6.1%22.70.75×
Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert1 in 167$1,501 3,002 coins6.6%43.21.25×
Sticker | mir (Gold) | Krakow 2017sticker · extraordinary1 in 100$1,250 2,500 coins9.2%75.31.32×
Souvenir M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Covert1 in 100$1,151 2,301 coins8.5%105.31.88×
★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary1 in 50$1,113 2,226 coins16.4%1010.60.94×
★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald1 in 25$966 1,931 coins28.5%1721.30.80×
Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New)weapon · covert90.0%$7.51 15.01 coins5.0%476478.80.99×
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert$151302 coins$4,2098,418 coins27.92x
★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covertBlankTorch7918$151302 coins$4,2098,418 coins27.92x
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$151302 coins$3,2886,576 coins21.81x
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$151302 coins$3,2886,576 coins21.81x
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$151302 coins$3,2886,576 coins21.81x
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$151302 coins$3,2886,576 coins21.81x
Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert$151302 coins$1,6613,323 coins11.02x
Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert$151302 coins$1,6613,323 coins11.02x
Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert$151302 coins$1,5013,002 coins9.96x
Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert$151302 coins$1,5013,002 coins9.96x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New)weapon · covert$151302 coins$7.5115.01 coins0.05x
Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New)weapon · covert$151302 coins$7.5115.01 coins0.05x
Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New)weapon · covert$151302 coins$7.5115.01 coins0.05x
Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New)weapon · covert$151302 coins$7.5115.01 coins0.05x
Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New)weapon · covert$151302 coins$7.5115.01 coins0.05x
Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New)weapon · covert$151302 coins$7.5115.01 coins0.05x
Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New)weapon · covert$151302 coins$7.5115.01 coins0.05x
Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New)weapon · covert$151302 coins$7.5115.01 coins0.05x
Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New)weapon · covert$151302 coins$7.5115.01 coins0.05x
Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New)weapon · covert$151302 coins$7.5115.01 coins0.05x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$15190.00%10
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 95.6%legendary 0.4%extraordinary 3.0%Covert 1.0%best hit $4,209 (27.92x)