SPIRIT M4
A case on Chicken.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$78.50
157 coins
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
95.81%
222 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 222 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and valuesnone published
No catalogChicken.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.
Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Souvenir M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · #4B69FF$78.50157 coins$7971,594 coins10.15x
Souvenir M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · CovertTMUBB$78.50157 coins$5201,041 coins6.63x
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$78.50157 coins$133266 coins1.70x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, daily
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedbest hit $4,761 (60.66x)