Splinter
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$183.06
366 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $164.75 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.16%
870 openings, odds method
Variance
15.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 45
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 878 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$183366 coins$7,75215,504 coins42.35x
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Covert$183366 coins$1,1512,301 coins6.29x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $183 | 90.00% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.4%covert 13.5%extraordinary 0.4%Covert 1.0%restricted 44.8%#4b69ff 40.0%best hit $8,972 (49.01x)