Spots
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.07
4.14 coins
Advertised RTP
89.82%
EV $1.86 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.66%
3,066 openings, odds method
Variance
10.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
21.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,066 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 20,000 | $800 1,600 coins | 2.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| Galil AR | Sugar Rush (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 1,000 | $45.68 91.35 coins | 2.5% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.30× |
| ★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 200 | $31.71 63.42 coins | 8.5% | 22 | 15.3 | 1.44× |
| AWP | Elite Build (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $22.21 44.41 coins | 11.9% | 42 | 30.7 | 1.37× |
| G3SG1 | Demeter (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 50 | $5.02 10.04 coins | 5.4% | 59 | 61.3 | 0.96× |
| USP-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 1 in 25 | $4.00 8 coins | 8.6% | 134 | 122.6 | 1.09× |
| Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Factory New)weapon | 1 in 17 | $3.01 6.01 coins | 9.7% | 174 | 184.0 | 0.95× |
| Dual Berettas | Moon in Libra (Field-Tested)weapon · #777777 | 1 in 13 | $2.01 4.01 coins | 8.6% | 247 | 245.3 | 1.01× |
| G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 78.4% | $1.01 2.02 coins | 42.6% | 2,384 | 2403.6 | 0.99× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.82%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.07 | 89.82% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%classified 1.1%extraordinary 0.5%mil spec 80.4%Rare 4.0%other 6.0%#777777 8.0%best hit —