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Spray N Pray

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$175.61
351 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $158.05 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
28.55%
20 openings, odds method
Variance
5.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
7 days
20 openings · below min
30 days
20 openings · below min
since tracking started
20 openings · below min
-0.5%64.5%129.5%

Small sample. 20 openings and 1.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h0———
7d2028.55%±100.2—odds
30d2028.55%±100.2—odds
All2028.55%±100.2—odds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 100$3,126 6,252 coins19.8%00.2—
M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 50$1,433 2,866 coins18.1%00.4—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 33$1,036 2,071 coins19.7%00.6—
Souvenir M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Covert1 in 25$520 1,041 coins13.2%00.8—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 20$201 402 coins6.4%11.0—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Cyber Security (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified12.0%$85.93 172 coins6.5%12.40.42×
Souvenir M249 | Gator Mesh (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade12.0%$77.52 155 coins5.9%32.41.25×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Point Disarray (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified12.0%$57.72 115 coins4.4%32.41.25×
AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New)weapon · covert12.0%$39.19 78.38 coins3.0%62.42.50×
MAC-10 | Propaganda (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 14$27.81 55.62 coins1.2%11.40.71×
Negev | Palm (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 14$18.92 37.84 coins0.8%21.41.43×
M4A4 | Dark Blossom (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 14$14.73 29.45 coins0.7%01.40.00×
UMP-45 | Wild Child (Factory New)weapon · pink1 in 14$9.14 18.27 coins0.4%11.40.71×
MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec1 in 11<$0.01 0.01 coins0.0%21.81.11×
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New)weapon · covert$176351 coins$39.1978.38 coins0.22x
UMP-45 | Wild Child (Factory New)weapon · pink$176351 coins$9.1418.27 coins0.05x
Souvenir M249 | Gator Mesh (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$176351 coins$77.52155 coins0.44x
AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New)weapon · covert$176351 coins$39.1978.38 coins0.22x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$176351 coins$201402 coins1.15x
AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New)weapon · covert$176351 coins$39.1978.38 coins0.22x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Point Disarray (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$176351 coins$57.72115 coins0.33x
Negev | Palm (Factory New)weapon · industrialTomex$176351 coins$18.9237.84 coins0.11x
AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New)weapon · covert$176351 coins$39.1978.38 coins0.22x
MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$176351 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$17690.00%14
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 23.0%Covert 4.0%Classified 12.0%Industrial Grade 12.0%classified 19.0%industrial 14.0%pink 7.0%milspec 9.0%best hit —