SSG 50-50
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$5.47
10.94 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $4.92 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.46%
402 openings, odds method
Variance
0.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
35.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
50.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 402 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $14.24 28.47 coins | 28.9% | 27 | 40.2 | 0.67× |
| SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $10.25 20.5 coins | 20.8% | 41 | 40.2 | 1.02× |
| SSG 08 | Red Stone (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 15.0% | $8.59 17.18 coins | 26.2% | 66 | 60.3 | 1.09× |
| SSG 08 | Death's Head (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $7.14 14.27 coins | 21.7% | 62 | 60.3 | 1.03× |
| SSG 08 | Necropos (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 15.0% | $0.41 0.83 coins | 1.3% | 56 | 60.3 | 0.93× |
| SSG 08 | Prey (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade | 15.0% | $0.26 0.51 coins | 0.8% | 51 | 60.3 | 0.85× |
| SSG 08 | Blue Spruce (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 10.0% | $0.13 0.25 coins | 0.3% | 47 | 40.2 | 1.17× |
| SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec | 10.0% | $0.03 0.05 coins | 0.1% | 52 | 40.2 | 1.29× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5.47 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 10.0%classified 10.0%consumer 25.0%restricted 15.0%#4b69ff 15.0%Consumer Grade 15.0%milspec 10.0%best hit —