Stick
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$21.88
43.75 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $19.69 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
116.91%
240 openings, odds method
Variance
18.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
22.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
57.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 240 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | iBUYPOWER | Katowice 2014sticker · high | 1 in 2,000 | $2,919 5,838 coins | 7.4% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Talon Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary | 1 in 2,000 | $2,656 5,311 coins | 6.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $249 497 coins | 12.6% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.42× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Autotronic (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 100 | $246 493 coins | 12.5% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× |
| Desert Eagle | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient | 20.0% | $23.11 46.22 coins | 23.5% | 42 | 48.0 | 0.88× |
| M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · covert | 20.0% | $22.82 45.63 coins | 23.2% | 59 | 48.0 | 1.23× |
| MP9 | Rose Iron (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 28.5% | $4.79 9.57 coins | 6.9% | 65 | 68.4 | 0.95× |
| SG 553 | Gator Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon | 29.4% | $4.76 9.51 coins | 7.1% | 72 | 70.6 | 1.02× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $21.88 | 89.99% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedhigh 0.1%legendary 0.1%covert 21.0%covert knife 1.0%Ancient 20.0%restricted 28.5%Uncommon 29.4%best hit $2,919 (133.4x)