Sticker Rich

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$9,849.29

19,699 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $8,864.36 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d

102.84%

22 openings, odds method

Variance

1.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

12.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

68.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

22 openings · below min

30 days

22 openings · below min

since tracking started

22 openings · below min

45.0%102.8%160.5%

Small sample. 22 openings and 2.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	22	102.84%±57.0	—	odds
30d	22	102.84%±57.0	—	odds
All	22	102.84%±57.0	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| Titan (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 100	$73.5K 147,047 coins	8.3%	0	0.2	—
Sticker \| iBUYPOWER (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 100	$72.4K 144,822 coins	8.2%	0	0.2	—
Sticker \| Reason Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 100	$52.4K 104,780 coins	5.9%	1	0.2	—
Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 100	$41.2K 82,490 coins	4.7%	0	0.2	—
Sticker \| Vox Eminor (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 100	$36.5K 72,902 coins	4.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 100	$36.3K 72,651 coins	4.1%	0	0.2	—
Sticker \| Team Dignitas (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 100	$31.6K 63,128 coins	3.6%	0	0.2	—
Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 50	$26.7K 53,347 coins	6.0%	2	0.4	—
Sticker \| Team LDLC.com (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 33	$25.5K 51,019 coins	8.6%	1	0.7	—
Sticker \| Natus Vincere (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	20.0%	$9,909 19,817 coins	22.4%	4	4.4	0.91×
Sticker \| HellRaisers (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	20.0%	$9,457 18,914 coins	21.3%	5	4.4	1.14×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B	17.0%	$550 1,099 coins	1.1%	1	3.7	0.27×
Souvenir AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified	16.0%	$525 1,051 coins	0.9%	4	3.5	1.14×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	15.0%	$506 1,012 coins	0.9%	4	3.3	1.21×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.