Sticky's House
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$50.61
101 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $45.54 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.87%
1,214 openings, odds method
Variance
25.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
53.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
46.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,214 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $24.8K 49,625 coins | 5.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $1,396 2,792 coins | 3.1% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $1,002 2,005 coins | 2.2% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.82× |
| Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Covert | 1 in 500 | $501 1,002 coins | 2.2% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.41× |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert | 1 in 400 | $494 987 coins | 2.7% | 3 | 3.0 | 0.99× |
| ★ Flip Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $112 224 coins | 12.3% | 58 | 60.7 | 0.96× |
| Souvenir M4A1-S | Master Piece (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Classified | 48.0% | $68.02 136 coins | 71.7% | 606 | 582.7 | 1.04× |
| M4A1-S | Nitro (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted | 46.3% | $0.36 0.73 coins | 0.4% | 545 | 562.6 | 0.97× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert$50.61101 coins$1,0022,005 coins19.81x
Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Covert$50.61101 coins$5011,002 coins9.90x
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir M4A1-S | Master Piece (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Classified$50.61101 coins$68.02136 coins1.34x
Souvenir M4A1-S | Master Piece (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Classified$50.61101 coins$68.02136 coins1.34x
Souvenir M4A1-S | Master Piece (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · ClassifiedEliteRift1189$50.61101 coins$68.02136 coins1.34x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $50.61 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 5.5%Covert 0.2%Classified 48.0%restricted 46.3%best hit $1,002 (19.81x)