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Stiletto

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$103.28
207 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $92.95 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
103.43%
319 openings, odds method
Variance
8.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
7 days
106.65%±32.51303 openings
30 days
103.43%±31.68319 openings
since tracking started
103.43%±31.68319 openings
71.0%105.5%140.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h0———
7d303106.65%±32.5+1.0σodds
30d319103.43%±31.7+0.8σodds
All319103.43%±31.7+0.8σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 319 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 200$2,469 4,937 coins13.3%31.61.88×
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby1 in 200$2,468 4,935 coins13.3%21.61.25×
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl1 in 200$1,834 3,667 coins9.9%01.60.00×
★ Stiletto Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary1 in 200$1,221 2,442 coins6.6%31.61.88×
★ Stiletto Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 100$614 1,229 coins6.6%53.21.57×
★ Stiletto Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 100$442 884 coins4.8%13.20.31×
★ Stiletto Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 50$360 720 coins7.7%46.40.63×
★ Stiletto Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 50$329 659 coins7.1%126.41.88×
★ Stiletto Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold1 in 50$131 261 coins2.8%76.41.10×
★ Stiletto Knife | Night Stripe (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife1 in 50$128 255 coins2.7%76.41.10×
★ Stiletto Knife | Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife1 in 50$111 223 coins2.4%66.40.94×
★ Stiletto Knife | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife1 in 50$110 221 coins2.4%36.40.47×
Glock-18 | Brass (Factory New)weapon · restricted15.0%$59.39 119 coins9.6%5347.91.11×
Glock-18 | Franklin (Factory New)weapon · Mythical21.0%$26.78 53.55 coins6.0%7167.01.06×
Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Factory New)weapon · classified24.0%$13.59 27.18 coins3.5%6876.60.89×
Glock-18 | Vogue (Factory New)weapon · Legendary24.0%$5.21 10.42 coins1.3%7476.60.97×
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$103207 coins$2,4694,937 coins23.90x
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$103207 coins$2,4694,937 coins23.90x
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$103207 coins$2,4694,937 coins23.90x
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$103207 coins$2,4684,935 coins23.89x
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$103207 coins$2,4684,935 coins23.89x
★ Stiletto Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary$103207 coins$1,2212,442 coins11.82x
★ Stiletto Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary$103207 coins$1,2212,442 coins11.82x
★ Stiletto Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary$103207 coins$1,2212,442 coins11.82x
★ Stiletto Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$103207 coins$6141,229 coins5.95x
★ Stiletto Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$103207 coins$6141,229 coins5.95x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Glock-18 | Vogue (Factory New)weapon · Legendary$103207 coins$5.2110.42 coins0.05x
★ Stiletto Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$103207 coins$360720 coins3.49x
Glock-18 | Vogue (Factory New)weapon · Legendary$103207 coins$5.2110.42 coins0.05x
Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Factory New)weapon · classified$103207 coins$13.5927.18 coins0.13x
Glock-18 | Franklin (Factory New)weapon · Mythical$103207 coins$26.7853.55 coins0.26x
★ Stiletto Knife | Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife$103207 coins$111223 coins1.08x
★ Stiletto Knife | Night Stripe (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife$103207 coins$128255 coins1.24x
Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Factory New)weapon · classifiedEliteRift1189$103207 coins$13.5927.18 coins0.13x
Glock-18 | Franklin (Factory New)weapon · Mythical$103207 coins$26.7853.55 coins0.26x
Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Factory New)weapon · classified$103207 coins$13.5927.18 coins0.13x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$10390.00%16
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 7.5%legendary 0.5%gold 2.0%covert knife 6.0%restricted 15.0%Mythical 21.0%classified 24.0%Legendary 24.0%best hit $2,469 (23.90x)