Stoners Paradise
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$51.87
104 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $46.68 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
77.33%
235 openings, odds method
Variance
10.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
17.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
67.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 235 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald | 1 in 400 | $2,813 5,625 coins | 15.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| ★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald | 1 in 100 | $658 1,317 coins | 14.1% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.43× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald | 1 in 100 | $506 1,012 coins | 10.8% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.43× |
| ★ Moto Gloves | Turtle (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 15.0% | $98.28 197 coins | 31.6% | 39 | 35.3 | 1.11× |
| ★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 15.0% | $83.53 167 coins | 26.8% | 51 | 35.3 | 1.45× |
| Galil AR | Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 21.0% | $2.75 5.49 coins | 1.2% | 50 | 49.4 | 1.01× |
| PP-Bizon | Photic Zone (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 21.0% | $0.36 0.73 coins | 0.2% | 39 | 49.4 | 0.79× |
| P250 | X-Ray (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 25.8% | $0.32 0.63 coins | 0.2% | 54 | 60.5 | 0.89× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$51.87104 coins$6581,317 coins12.69x
★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$51.87104 coins$5061,012 coins9.75x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinaryEliteRift1189$51.87104 coins$83.53167 coins1.61x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $51.87 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 2.3%extraordinary 30.0%classified 21.0%mil spec 21.0%restricted 25.8%best hit $658 (12.69x)