Sugar Rush
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$32.52
65.04 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $29.27 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
73.72%
40 openings, odds method
Variance
2.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
11.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
55.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 40 openings and 4.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 40 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir Nova | Candy Apple (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$32.5265.04 coins$93.07186 coins2.86x
Galil AR | Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedaxel02legmail$32.5265.04 coins$34.0368.06 coins1.05x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $32.52 | 89.99% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 3.0%mil spec 1.0%classified 36.0%industrial 2.0%Industrial Grade 3.0%consumer 55.0%best hit —