Sunburn
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.10
0.19 coins
Advertised RTP
85.99%
EV $0.08 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
70.31%
21.1K openings, odds method
Variance
329.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 1,000
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 21.1K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ P90 | Cold Blooded (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 2,000 | $64.92 130 coins | 39.7% | 6 | 10.6 | 0.57× |
| ★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 2,000 | $31.71 63.42 coins | 19.4% | 11 | 10.6 | 1.04× |
| Dual Berettas | Pyre (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 2,000 | $20.37 40.73 coins | 12.5% | 11 | 10.6 | 1.04× |
| SCAR-20 | Magna Carta (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 2,000 | $12.62 25.24 coins | 7.7% | 9 | 10.6 | 0.85× |
| FAMAS | Eye of Athena (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 1,000 | $9.03 18.06 coins | 11.1% | 19 | 21.1 | 0.90× |
| P2000 | Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical | 1 in 1,000 | $2.09 4.18 coins | 2.6% | 21 | 21.1 | 0.99× |
| Negev | Lionfish (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 1,000 | $0.79 1.58 coins | 1.0% | 18 | 21.1 | 0.85× |
| P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 99.5% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 6.1% | 21,040 | 21029.3 | 1.00× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 85.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.10 | 85.99% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 0.1%extraordinary 0.1%industrial 0.1%Mil Spec Grade 0.1%Mythical 0.1%restricted 0.1%#4b69ff 99.5%best hit —