Supreme Knives

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$40.30

80.6 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $36.27 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

105.38%

696 openings, odds method

Variance

35.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 16

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

69.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

60.47%±83.79193 openings

7 days

113.69%±48.09586 openings

30 days

105.38%±44.12696 openings

since tracking started

105.38%±44.12696 openings

-0.5%81.0%162.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	193	60.47%±83.8	−0.7σ	odds
7d	586	113.69%±48.1	+1.0σ	odds
30d	696	105.38%±44.1	+0.7σ	odds
All	696	105.38%±44.1	+0.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 696 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 6,667	$10.6K 21,246 coins	4.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 6,667	$10.4K 20,866 coins	4.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 6,667	$8,347 16,693 coins	3.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 5,000	$6,321 12,641 coins	3.5%	1	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 1,000	$1,449 2,899 coins	4.0%	2	0.7	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 1,000	$1,293 2,585 coins	3.6%	1	0.7	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100	$266 531 coins	7.3%	7	7.0	1.01×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 20	$150 300 coins	20.7%	34	34.8	0.98×
★ Ursus Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal	1 in 13	$74.62 149 coins	16.5%	48	55.7	0.86×
★ Bowie Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 13	$73.42 147 coins	16.2%	64	55.7	1.15×
★ Falchion Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700	1 in 13	$73.15 146 coins	16.1%	52	55.7	0.93×
P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	69.7%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	487	485.4	1.00×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$40.3080.6 coins$6,32112,641 coins156.8x3d

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$40.3080.6 coins$1,4492,899 coins35.96x1d

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · EmeraldSanityy$40.3080.6 coins$1,4492,899 coins35.96x5d

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby$40.3080.6 coins$1,2932,585 coins32.07x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · covert$40.3080.6 coins$73.42147 coins1.82x2h

P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$40.3080.6 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2h

★ Ursus Knife | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal$40.3080.6 coins$74.62149 coins1.85x2h

★ Falchion Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700$40.3080.6 coins$73.15146 coins1.82x2h

P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$40.3080.6 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2h

P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffBG2x$40.3080.6 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2h

P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$40.3080.6 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$40.30	90.00%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 9.3%gold 5.0%Immortal 8.0%#ffd700 8.0%#4b69ff 69.7%best hit $6,321 (156.8x)