Survive
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$212.88
426 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $191.59 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.03%
26 openings, odds method
Variance
0.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
55.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 26 openings and 14.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 26 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 100 | $1,113 2,226 coins | 5.8% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| ★ Karambit | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $765 1,530 coins | 4.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| ★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $617 1,234 coins | 3.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| ★ Talon Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $509 1,019 coins | 2.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| ★ Nomad Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $404 808 coins | 2.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| ★ Survival Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 50.0% | $207 414 coins | 54.1% | 12 | 13.0 | 0.92× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 20.0% | $125 251 coins | 13.1% | 5 | 5.2 | 0.96× |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 25.0% | $116 231 coins | 15.1% | 8 | 6.5 | 1.23× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $213 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 1.0%covert 99.0%best hit $1,113 (5.23x)