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sylthora

A case on Chicken.gg, first seen 8 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$873.94
1,748 coins
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
96.93%
824 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
808 openings · below min
7 days
824 openings · below min
30 days
824 openings · below min
since tracking started
824 openings · below min
12.5%98.8%185.0%

Small sample. 824 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h80898.85%±85.4—sample
7d82496.93%±83.8—sample
30d82496.93%±83.8—sample
All82496.93%±83.8—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogChicken.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$8741,748 coins$217K434,217 coins248.4x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covertinsane67$8741,748 coins$112K223,312 coins127.8x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert$8741,748 coins$112K223,312 coins127.8x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert$8741,748 coins$112K223,312 coins127.8x
Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$8741,748 coins$73.5K147,047 coins84.13x
Sticker | iBUYPOWER (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$8741,748 coins$72.4K144,822 coins82.86x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$8741,748 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$8741,748 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$8741,748 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$8741,748 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$8741,748 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$8741,748 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$8741,748 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested)weapon · milspecinsane67$8741,748 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$8741,748 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$8741,748 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $217K (248.4x)