System
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$127.76
256 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $114.98 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
31.52%
10 openings, odds method
Variance
3.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
14.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
74.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 10 openings and 1.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $1,006 2,012 coins | 17.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2 | 1 in 50 | $901 1,803 coins | 15.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ Bayonet | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $379 757 coins | 16.5% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Stained (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $377 753 coins | 16.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| Souvenir P250 | Nuclear Threat (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted | 1 in 20 | $376 752 coins | 16.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| ★ Bowie Knife | Night (Factory New)knife · Covert | 1 in 14 | $252 504 coins | 15.3% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New)weapon · covert | 22.0% | $12.07 24.13 coins | 2.3% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.91× |
| FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 52.0% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 7 | 5.2 | 1.35× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $128 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 36.0%Restricted 5.0%Covert 7.0%#4b69ff 52.0%best hit —