T-Side
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$58.15
116 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $52.33 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
97.08%
96 openings, odds method
Variance
11.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 19
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
77.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 96 openings and 5.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 96 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · RubyEliteRift1189$58.15116 coins$1,2932,585 coins22.23x
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$58.15116 coins$53.59107 coins0.92x
StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$58.15116 coins$53.59107 coins0.92x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $58.15 | 89.99% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.1%covert 7.2%#EB4B4B 0.1%rare 4.0%classified 13.0%covert knife 5.0%red 2.0%restricted 2.0%Legendary 3.0%Mythical 2.0%industrial 61.7%best hit $1,293 (22.23x)