Tainted Dragon

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$45.83

91.66 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $41.25 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

218.48%

58 openings, odds method

Variance

7.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 25

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

92.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

42 openings · below min

30 days

58 openings · below min

since tracking started

58 openings · below min

89.5%190.3%291.0%

Small sample. 58 openings and 2.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	42	190.49%±84.2	—	odds
30d	58	218.48%±71.6	—	odds
All	58	218.48%±71.6	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 58 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · epic	1 in 100	$871 1,742 coins	21.1%	3	0.6	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$696 1,391 coins	16.9%	1	0.6	—
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)weapon · red · Emerald	1 in 100	$466 933 coins	11.3%	0	0.6	—
Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$380 759 coins	9.2%	3	0.6	—
P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$348 696 coins	8.4%	2	0.6	—
Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$206 413 coins	5.0%	0	0.6	—
CZ75-Auto \| Emerald Quartz (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$75.09 150 coins	1.8%	0	0.6	—
Souvenir Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$72.33 145 coins	1.8%	1	0.6	—
★ Hydra Gloves \| Emerald (Field-Tested)gloves · gold	1 in 20	$40.72 81.43 coins	4.9%	3	2.9	1.03×
SCAR-20 \| Emerald (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$23.26 46.51 coins	2.8%	4	2.9	1.38×
CZ75-Auto \| Emerald (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	10.0%	$19.18 38.36 coins	4.7%	7	5.8	1.21×
USP-S \| Para Green (Factory New)weapon · industrial	12.0%	$12.06 24.12 coins	3.5%	7	7.0	1.01×
AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	15.0%	$8.39 16.78 coins	3.1%	6	8.7	0.69×
MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	15.0%	$6.71 13.42 coins	2.4%	8	8.7	0.92×
Tec-9 \| Toxic (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	15.0%	$5.47 10.93 coins	2.0%	6	8.7	0.69×
PP-Bizon \| Chemical Green (Factory New)weapon · industrial	15.0%	$3.04 6.08 coins	1.1%	7	8.7	0.80×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

StatTrak™ P90 | Emerald Dragon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · epic$45.8391.66 coins$8711,742 coins19.01x5d

StatTrak™ P90 | Emerald Dragon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · epicTx415151$45.8391.66 coins$8711,742 coins19.01x5d

StatTrak™ P90 | Emerald Dragon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · epic$45.8391.66 coins$8711,742 coins19.01x8d

★ Moto Gloves | Turtle (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$45.8391.66 coins$6961,391 coins15.18x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

CZ75-Auto | Emerald (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$45.8391.66 coins$19.1838.36 coins0.42x4d

USP-S | Para Green (Factory New)weapon · industrial$45.8391.66 coins$12.0624.12 coins0.26x4d

AK-47 | Green Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · blue$45.8391.66 coins$8.3916.78 coins0.18x4d

P250 | Nuclear Threat (Factory New)weapon · restricted$45.8391.66 coins$348696 coins7.59x4d

★ Hydra Gloves | Emerald (Field-Tested)gloves · gold$45.8391.66 coins$40.7281.43 coins0.89x4d

CZ75-Auto | Emerald (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$45.8391.66 coins$19.1838.36 coins0.42x4d

CZ75-Auto | Emerald (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$45.8391.66 coins$19.1838.36 coins0.42x5d

SCAR-20 | Emerald (Factory New)weapon · restricted$45.8391.66 coins$23.2646.51 coins0.51x5d

PP-Bizon | Chemical Green (Factory New)weapon · industrial$45.8391.66 coins$3.046.08 coins0.07x5d

Tec-9 | Toxic (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$45.8391.66 coins$5.4710.93 coins0.12x5d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$45.83	90.00%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedepic 1.0%extraordinary 1.0%red 1.0%restricted 9.0%mil spec 41.0%gold 5.0%industrial 27.0%blue 15.0%best hit $871 (19.01x)