The King

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$23.10

46.19 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $20.79 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

69.58%

2,314 openings, odds method

Variance

150.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 29

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

94.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

48.32%±154.10244 openings

7 days

70.10%±51.042,224 openings

30 days

69.58%±50.042,314 openings

since tracking started

69.58%±50.042,314 openings

-0.5%101.3%203.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	244	48.32%±154.1	−0.5σ	odds
7d	2,224	70.10%±51.0	−0.8σ	odds
30d	2,314	69.58%±50.0	−0.8σ	odds
All	2,314	69.58%±50.0	−0.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,314 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 1,000	$8,979 17,957 coins	43.2%	1	2.3	0.43×
SG 553 \| Bulldozer (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 500	$101 202 coins	1.0%	10	4.6	2.16×
★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 500	$84.62 169 coins	0.8%	7	4.6	1.51×
M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 400	$61.60 123 coins	0.7%	3	5.8	0.52×
AK-47 \| First Class (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 400	$52.23 104 coins	0.6%	3	5.8	0.52×
P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 40	$43.58 87.15 coins	5.2%	59	57.9	1.02×
P90 \| Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 40	$40.53 81.05 coins	4.9%	59	57.9	1.02×
USP-S \| Business Class (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$22.37 44.74 coins	5.4%	114	115.7	0.99×
M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$21.68 43.36 coins	5.2%	127	115.7	1.10×
MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	10.0%	$20.66 41.32 coins	9.9%	242	231.4	1.05×
Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Factory New)weapon · restricted	15.0%	$10.26 20.52 coins	7.4%	358	347.1	1.03×
USP-S \| Royal Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	15.0%	$10.11 20.21 coins	7.3%	332	347.1	0.96×
PP-Bizon \| Antique (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	12.0%	$5.51 11.01 coins	3.2%	279	277.7	1.00×
MP7 \| Gunsmoke (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff	11.0%	$5.23 10.46 coins	2.8%	255	254.5	1.00×
MAG-7 \| Firestarter (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	11.0%	$2.63 5.26 coins	1.4%	267	254.5	1.05×
PP-Bizon \| Breaker Box (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff	10.0%	$2.01 4.01 coins	1.0%	198	231.4	0.86×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Driver Gloves | King Snake (Factory New)gloves · legendary$23.1046.19 coins$8,97917,957 coins388.8x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

PP-Bizon | Breaker Box (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff$23.1046.19 coins$2.014.01 coins0.09x15h

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New)weapon · covertMoon1025$23.1046.19 coins$21.6843.36 coins0.94x15h

PP-Bizon | Antique (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff$23.1046.19 coins$5.5111.01 coins0.24x16h

MAC-10 | Propaganda (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6$23.1046.19 coins$20.6641.32 coins0.89x16h

USP-S | Royal Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$23.1046.19 coins$10.1120.21 coins0.44x16h

PP-Bizon | Antique (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff$23.1046.19 coins$5.5111.01 coins0.24x16h

PP-Bizon | Breaker Box (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff$23.1046.19 coins$2.014.01 coins0.09x16h

MAC-10 | Propaganda (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6$23.1046.19 coins$20.6641.32 coins0.89x16h

MP7 | Gunsmoke (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff$23.1046.19 coins$5.2310.46 coins0.23x16h

Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Factory New)weapon · restrictedMoon1025$23.1046.19 coins$10.2620.52 coins0.44x16h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$23.10	90.00%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.1%restricted 15.4%covert 8.0%classified 2.5%mil spec 5.0%#d32ee6 10.0%industrial 15.0%#8847ff 12.0%#87c7ff 21.0%Mil Spec Grade 11.0%best hit $8,979 (388.8x)