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The Last Dance

A case on Chicken.gg, first seen 4 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$1,539.63
3,079 coins
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
36.48%
60 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
7 days
52 openings · below min
30 days
60 openings · below min
since tracking started
60 openings · below min
-0.5%45.8%92.0%

Small sample. 60 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h0———
7d5210.23%±11.7—sample
30d6036.48%±54.8—sample
All6036.48%±54.8—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogChicken.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Sticker | Team LDLC.com (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkableilovegoon$1,5403,079 coins$25.5K51,019 coins16.57x
Charm | Baby Karat Tcharm · #eb4b4b$1,5403,079 coins$3,4856,970 coins2.26x
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$1,5403,079 coins$2,8445,688 coins1.85x
Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · #EB4B4B$1,5403,079 coins$1,8603,720 coins1.21x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$1,5403,079 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$1,5403,079 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$1,5403,079 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$1,5403,079 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · #EB4B4B$1,5403,079 coins$1,8603,720 coins1.21x
MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$1,5403,079 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$1,5403,079 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested)weapon · milspecgramou$1,5403,079 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$1,5403,079 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$1,5403,079 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $25.5K (16.57x)