The Sizzler
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$58.39
117 coins
Advertised RTP
89.00%
EV $51.97 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.23%
32 openings, odds method
Variance
0.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
60.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 32 openings and 19.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 32 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Ruby | 1 in 100,000 | $1,543 3,086 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · Covert · Ruby | 1 in 20,000 | $873 1,745 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| StatTrak™ P90 | Cold Blooded (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $64.92 130 coins | 6.2% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.88× |
| M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $60.88 122 coins | 17.6% | 6 | 4.8 | 1.25× |
| MP9 | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 40.0% | $58.12 116 coins | 44.7% | 12 | 12.8 | 0.94× |
| Five-SeveN | Berries And Cherries (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $54.12 108 coins | 5.2% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| Desert Eagle | Code Red (Factory New)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $49.36 98.71 coins | 9.5% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.63× |
| USP-S | The Traitor (Factory New)weapon · Ancient | 25.0% | $34.57 69.13 coins | 16.6% | 9 | 8.0 | 1.13× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ P90 | Cold Blooded (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$58.39117 coins$64.92130 coins1.11x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $58.39 | 89.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#EB4B4B 0.0%Covert 0.0%classified 5.0%restricted 20.0%mil spec 40.0%covert 10.0%Ancient 25.0%best hit —