Tidebreaker
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$161.06
322 coins
Advertised RTP
89.00%
EV $143.34 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
73.87%
24 openings, odds method
Variance
1.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
18.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
61.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 24 openings and 4.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 24 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted$161322 coins$137274 coins0.85x
Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New)weapon · restrictedMoon1025$161322 coins$175350 coins1.09x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $161 | 89.00% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 27.5%covert knife 1.0%extraordinary 11.0%legendary 3.0%pink 5.0%restricted 10.0%classified 5.0%milspec 5.0%Restricted 5.0%Mil Spec Grade 27.5%best hit —