Tin Can Shaker
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.19
0.37 coins
Advertised RTP
89.42%
EV $0.17 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.33%
14.4K openings, odds method
Variance
48.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 143
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
98.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14.4K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P250 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 667 | $23.04 46.07 coins | 20.9% | 20 | 21.7 | 0.92× |
| M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 667 | $21.41 42.82 coins | 19.4% | 18 | 21.7 | 0.83× |
| Nova | Rising Skull (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 250 | $4.83 9.65 coins | 11.7% | 57 | 57.7 | 0.99× |
| Nova | Rising Skull (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 250 | $3.67 7.34 coins | 8.9% | 55 | 57.7 | 0.95× |
| PP-Bizon | Bamboo Print (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade | 1 in 250 | $3.27 6.53 coins | 7.9% | 78 | 57.7 | 1.35× |
| Dual Berettas | Stained (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 24.0% | $0.17 0.33 coins | 23.9% | 3,522 | 3464.2 | 1.02× |
| PP-Bizon | Facility Sketch (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 24.0% | $0.04 0.07 coins | 5.1% | 3,390 | 3464.2 | 0.98× |
| R8 Revolver | Grip (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec | 24.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 1.5% | 3,467 | 3464.2 | 1.00× |
| P2000 | Granite Marbleized (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 26.5% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.8% | 3,827 | 3825.0 | 1.00× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.42%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.18 | 89.42% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedmil spec 0.1%classified 0.1%restricted 0.8%Consumer Grade 0.4%industrial 50.5%consumer 24.0%milspec 24.0%best hit $23.04 (124.5x)