Toothless

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$20.60

41.2 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $18.54 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.63%

237 openings, odds method

Variance

13.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

22.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

83.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

2 openings · below min

7 days

94.25%±51.58189 openings

30 days

88.63%±46.06237 openings

since tracking started

88.63%±46.06237 openings

-0.5%268.0%536.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2	34.39%±501.4	—	odds
7d	189	94.25%±51.6	+0.2σ	odds
30d	237	88.63%±46.1	−0.1σ	odds
All	237	88.63%±46.1	−0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 237 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 250	$1,191 2,383 coins	25.7%	1	0.9	—
USP-S \| Blueprint (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$24.16 48.32 coins	6.5%	9	11.8	0.76×
USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$22.86 45.72 coins	6.2%	13	11.8	1.10×
USP-S \| Business Class (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 17	$22.37 44.74 coins	7.2%	11	14.2	0.77×
USP-S \| Whiteout (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$19.52 39.04 coins	6.3%	18	14.2	1.27×
USP-S \| Pathfinder (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 17	$18.06 36.11 coins	5.8%	12	14.2	0.84×
USP-S \| Pathfinder (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 17	$17.07 34.14 coins	5.5%	11	14.2	0.77×
USP-S \| Overgrowth (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$17.02 34.04 coins	5.5%	10	14.2	0.70×
USP-S \| Stainless (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 17	$13.42 26.84 coins	4.3%	15	14.2	1.05×
USP-S \| Para Green (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 17	$12.06 24.12 coins	3.9%	13	14.2	0.91×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$11.22 22.44 coins	3.6%	15	14.2	1.05×
USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 17	$10.36 20.72 coins	3.4%	11	14.2	0.77×
USP-S \| Royal Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 17	$10.11 20.21 coins	3.3%	14	14.2	0.98×
USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 17	$9.84 19.67 coins	3.2%	14	14.2	0.98×
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 17	$9.53 19.05 coins	3.1%	21	14.2	1.48×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 17	$7.39 14.77 coins	2.4%	12	14.2	0.84×
USP-S \| Cortex (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$6.79 13.57 coins	2.2%	23	14.2	1.62×
USP-S \| Para Green (Field-Tested)weapon · 2	1 in 18	$6.07 12.13 coins	1.8%	14	13.3	1.05×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert$20.6041.2 coins$1,1912,383 coins57.83x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

USP-S | Cortex (Factory New)weapon · classified$20.6041.2 coins$6.7913.57 coins0.33x15h

USP-S | The Traitor (Field-Tested)weapon · redMoon1025$20.6041.2 coins$7.3914.77 coins0.36x15h

USP-S | Para Green (Field-Tested)weapon · 2$20.6041.2 coins$6.0712.13 coins0.29x1d

USP-S | Para Green (Factory New)weapon · industrial$20.6041.2 coins$12.0624.12 coins0.59x1d

USP-S | Pathfinder (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial$20.6041.2 coins$17.0734.14 coins0.83x1d

USP-S | Pathfinder (Factory New)weapon · industrial$20.6041.2 coins$18.0636.11 coins0.88x1d

USP-S | Cortex (Factory New)weapon · classified$20.6041.2 coins$6.7913.57 coins0.33x1d

USP-S | Royal Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · industrialrekztimmy$20.6041.2 coins$10.1120.21 coins0.49x1d

USP-S | Business Class (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$20.6041.2 coins$22.3744.74 coins1.09x1d

USP-S | Purple DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · blue$20.6041.2 coins$9.8419.67 coins0.48x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$20.60	90.00%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed2 5.6%covert 11.4%mil spec 23.0%classified 18.0%industrial 24.0%restricted 6.0%blue 6.0%red 6.0%best hit $1,191 (57.83x)