Trace
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$8.94
17.88 coins
Advertised RTP
89.96%
EV $8.04 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
100.63%
224 openings, odds method
Variance
3.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
66.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 230 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$8.9417.88 coins$10.0620.12 coins1.13x
Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedchakhna$8.9417.88 coins$10.0620.12 coins1.13x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.96%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $8.94 | 89.96% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 11.0%classified 5.0%rare 0.0%gold 1.0%restricted 1.0%Mil Spec Grade 6.0%red 5.0%mil spec 5.0%#4b69ff 66.0%best hit —