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Train

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$3.02
6.03 coins
Advertised RTP
89.94%
EV $2.71 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.07%
10K openings, odds method
Variance
271.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 556
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
97.5%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
454 openings · below min
7 days
90.47%±34.228,916 openings
30 days
87.07%±32.2410K openings
since tracking started
87.07%±32.2410K openings
-0.5%97.5%195.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h45443.42%±151.6—odds
7d8,91690.47%±34.2+0.0σodds
30d10K87.07%±32.2−0.2σodds
All10K87.07%±32.2−0.2σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AWP | The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 6,667$3,086 6,171 coins17.1%21.51.33×
★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl1 in 2,000$1,258 2,517 coins23.2%45.00.80×
M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Factory New)weapon · #eb4b4b1 in 3,333$758 1,515 coins8.4%33.01.00×
Souvenir M4A1-S | Master Piece (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · classified1 in 10,000$161 323 coins0.6%11.01.00×
AK-47 | Black Laminate (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 1,333$115 230 coins3.2%87.51.06×
★ Survival Knife | Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife1 in 100$66.81 134 coins24.6%81100.50.81×
AK-47 | Predator (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 75$46.41 92.81 coins22.8%137133.61.03×
MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade97.5%<$0.01 0.01 coins0.2%9,8119794.81.00×
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covert$3.026.03 coins$3,0866,171 coins1,023x
AWP | The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covert$3.026.03 coins$3,0866,171 coins1,023x
★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$3.026.03 coins$1,2582,517 coins417.4x
★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$3.026.03 coins$1,2582,517 coins417.4x
★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$3.026.03 coins$1,2582,517 coins417.4x
★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearlkinypulse$3.026.03 coins$1,2582,517 coins417.4x
M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Factory New)weapon · #eb4b4b$3.026.03 coins$7581,515 coins251.3x
M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Factory New)weapon · #eb4b4b$3.026.03 coins$7581,515 coins251.3x
M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Factory New)weapon · #eb4b4b$3.026.03 coins$7581,515 coins251.3x
Souvenir M4A1-S | Master Piece (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · classified$3.026.03 coins$161323 coins53.49x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade$3.026.03 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade$3.026.03 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade$3.026.03 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade$3.026.03 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade$3.026.03 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
AK-47 | Predator (Factory New)weapon · industrial$3.026.03 coins$46.4192.81 coins15.39x
MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade$3.026.03 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade$3.026.03 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade$3.026.03 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade$3.026.03 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.94%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$3.0289.94%8
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.1%#eb4b4b 0.0%classified 0.0%mil spec 0.1%covert knife 1.0%industrial 1.3%Consumer Grade 97.5%best hit $3,086 (1,023x)