Tranquil
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$9.59
19.17 coins
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $8.62 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.12%
168 openings, odds method
Variance
1.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 168 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $51.70 103 coins | 6.0% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.19× |
| AUG | Sand Storm (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 100 | $42.99 85.97 coins | 5.0% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.60× |
| M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 25 | $37.64 75.28 coins | 17.5% | 6 | 6.7 | 0.89× |
| M4A4 | Cyber Security (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 25 | $29.36 58.71 coins | 13.6% | 11 | 6.7 | 1.64× |
| Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $21.29 42.58 coins | 12.3% | 9 | 8.4 | 1.07× |
| M4A1-S | Player Two (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $14.17 28.33 coins | 8.2% | 8 | 8.4 | 0.95× |
| MAC-10 | Toybox (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $10.02 20.04 coins | 11.6% | 14 | 16.8 | 0.83× |
| P90 | Nostalgia (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $7.54 15.08 coins | 8.7% | 18 | 16.8 | 1.07× |
| MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $7.07 14.13 coins | 8.2% | 16 | 16.8 | 0.95× |
| Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 50.0% | $1.53 3.05 coins | 8.8% | 83 | 84.0 | 0.99× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $9.59 | 89.98% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 25.0%restricted 1.0%covert 74.0%best hit —