Treasure Core
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$63.19
126 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $56.86 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
57.09%
6 openings, odds method
Variance
3.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 6 openings and 0.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $369 737 coins | 13.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| MP7 | Whiteout (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 50 | $367 733 coins | 12.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3 | 1 in 50 | $364 728 coins | 12.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1 | 1 in 50 | $362 723 coins | 12.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 25 | $224 449 coins | 15.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ Survival Knife | Night Stripe (Factory New)knife · knifes | 1 in 25 | $213 427 coins | 15.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ Survival Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 25 | $207 414 coins | 14.6% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| P250 | Muertos (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $3.21 6.41 coins | 0.8% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| PP-Bizon | Chemical Green (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 25.0% | $3.04 6.08 coins | 1.3% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 40.0% | $1.53 3.05 coins | 1.1% | 4 | 2.4 | 1.67× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $63.19 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 52.0%mil spec 2.0%gold 2.0%knifes 4.0%classified 15.0%industrial 25.0%best hit —