Treasure Hunt

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$2,809.35

5,619 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $2,528.42 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

126.68%

20 openings, odds method

Variance

6.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

17.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

67.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

4 openings · below min

7 days

20 openings · below min

30 days

20 openings · below min

since tracking started

20 openings · below min

-0.5%153.8%308.0%

Small sample. 20 openings and 3.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	4	50.67%±256.8	—	odds
7d	20	126.68%±114.8	—	odds
30d	20	126.68%±114.8	—	odds
All	20	126.68%±114.8	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$112K 223,312 coins	4.4%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| Titan (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 500	$73.5K 147,047 coins	5.8%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| iBUYPOWER (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 500	$72.4K 144,822 coins	5.7%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| Reason Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 500	$52.4K 104,780 coins	4.1%	1	0.0	—
Sticker \| Vox Eminor (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 250	$36.5K 72,902 coins	5.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 250	$36.3K 72,651 coins	5.7%	0	0.1	—
Sticker \| Team Dignitas (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 250	$31.6K 63,128 coins	5.0%	0	0.1	—
Sticker \| Team LDLC.com (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 200	$25.5K 51,019 coins	5.0%	0	0.1	—
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Factory New)weapon · covert	15.0%	$3,134 6,269 coins	18.6%	2	3.0	0.67×
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New)weapon · covert	15.0%	$3,126 6,252 coins	18.5%	1	3.0	0.33×
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert	10.0%	$1,241 2,481 coins	4.9%	1	2.0	0.50×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire	10.0%	$1,227 2,453 coins	4.9%	1	2.0	0.50×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Night (Factory New)StatTrak · knife	10.0%	$1,129 2,258 coins	4.5%	3	2.0	1.50×
★ Karambit \| Night (Factory New)knife · covert	10.0%	$1,089 2,177 coins	4.3%	1	2.0	0.50×
MP5-SD \| Oxide Oasis (Factory New)weapon · classified	13.0%	$247 493 coins	1.3%	4	2.6	1.54×
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	14.6%	$244 488 coins	1.4%	6	2.9	2.05×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$2,8095,619 coins$52.4K104,780 coins18.65x4d

AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New)weapon · covertSanityy$2,8095,619 coins$3,1346,269 coins1.12x21h

AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New)weapon · covert$2,8095,619 coins$3,1346,269 coins1.12x6d

AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New)weapon · covert$2,8095,619 coins$3,1266,252 coins1.11x4d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert$2,8095,619 coins$1,2412,481 coins0.44x4d

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire$2,8095,619 coins$1,2272,453 coins0.44x21h

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Night (Factory New)StatTrak · knifepooop$2,8095,619 coins$1,1292,258 coins0.40x4d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Night (Factory New)StatTrak · knife$2,8095,619 coins$1,1292,258 coins0.40x6d

★ Karambit | Night (Factory New)knife · covert$2,8095,619 coins$1,0892,177 coins0.39x21h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Karambit | Night (Factory New)knife · covert$2,8095,619 coins$1,0892,177 coins0.39x21h

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire$2,8095,619 coins$1,2272,453 coins0.44x21h

★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$2,8095,619 coins$244488 coins0.09x21h

AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New)weapon · covertSanityy$2,8095,619 coins$3,1346,269 coins1.12x21h

Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$2,8095,619 coins$52.4K104,780 coins18.65x4d

MP5-SD | Oxide Oasis (Factory New)weapon · classified$2,8095,619 coins$247493 coins0.09x4d

★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$2,8095,619 coins$244488 coins0.09x4d

AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New)weapon · covert$2,8095,619 coins$3,1266,252 coins1.11x4d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Night (Factory New)StatTrak · knifepooop$2,8095,619 coins$1,1292,258 coins0.40x4d

★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$2,8095,619 coins$244488 coins0.09x4d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$2,809	90.00%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 50.1%legendary 1.2%remarkable 1.1%Covert 10.0%other 10.0%classified 13.0%covert knife 14.6%best hit $52.4K (18.65x)