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Trigger

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$124.87
250 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $112.38 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
54.76%
68 openings, odds method
Variance
7.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
88.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
7 days
60 openings · below min
30 days
68 openings · below min
since tracking started
68 openings · below min
-0.5%65.5%131.5%

Small sample. 68 openings and 2.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h0———
7d6061.18%±69.9—odds
30d6854.76%±65.6—odds
All6854.76%±65.6—odds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 68 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 50$2,012 4,025 coins35.8%01.40.00×
Souvenir M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Covert1 in 50$1,151 2,301 coins20.5%11.40.74×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Red Laminate (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 50$809 1,619 coins14.4%31.42.21×
Souvenir M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Covert1 in 33$455 910 coins12.1%12.00.49×
Souvenir Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified1 in 33$393 786 coins10.5%02.00.00×
Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 20$40.01 80.02 coins1.8%43.41.18×
M4A4 | Modern Hunter (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 20$25.41 50.82 coins1.1%23.40.59×
P250 | Splash (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted23.0%$15.02 30.03 coins3.1%2415.61.53×
MAC-10 | Aloha (Factory New)weapon · mil spec25.0%$2.53 5.06 coins0.6%1417.00.82×
UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested)weapon · blue30.0%$0.50 1 coins0.1%1920.40.93×
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Souvenir M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · CovertVinnie2524$125250 coins$1,1512,301 coins9.21x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Red Laminate (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedCOCOAAA$125250 coins$8091,619 coins6.48x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Red Laminate (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$125250 coins$8091,619 coins6.48x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Red Laminate (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$125250 coins$8091,619 coins6.48x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested)weapon · blue$125250 coins$0.501 coins0.00x
UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested)weapon · blue$125250 coins$0.501 coins0.00x
P250 | Splash (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$125250 coins$15.0230.03 coins0.12x
P250 | Splash (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedSanityy$125250 coins$15.0230.03 coins0.12x
Souvenir M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Covert$125250 coins$455910 coins3.64x
MAC-10 | Aloha (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$125250 coins$2.535.06 coins0.02x
M4A4 | Modern Hunter (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$125250 coins$25.4150.82 coins0.20x
P250 | Splash (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$125250 coins$15.0230.03 coins0.12x
Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New)weapon · industrial$125250 coins$40.0180.02 coins0.32x
UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested)weapon · blue$125250 coins$0.501 coins0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$12590.00%10
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 2.0%Covert 5.0%classified 5.0%industrial 5.0%restricted 28.0%mil spec 25.0%blue 30.0%best hit $1,151 (9.21x)