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Tripped

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$60.87
122 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $54.78 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.65%
874 openings, odds method
Variance
24.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 43
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
93.7%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
16 openings · below min
7 days
111.21%±49.61384 openings
30 days
92.65%±32.88874 openings
since tracking started
92.65%±32.88874 openings
-0.5%207.0%414.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h16170.64%±243.0—odds
7d384111.21%±49.6+0.8σodds
30d87492.65%±32.9+0.2σodds
All87492.65%±32.9+0.2σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 874 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary1 in 500$4,806 9,611 coins17.5%21.71.14×
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 333$3,187 6,373 coins17.5%32.61.14×
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B1 in 125$754 1,507 coins11.0%77.01.00×
★ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 100$702 1,404 coins12.8%108.71.14×
AK-47 | Jet Set (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 100$632 1,265 coins11.5%78.70.80×
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby1 in 100$558 1,117 coins10.2%98.71.03×
Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 50$201 402 coins7.3%1317.50.74×
Galil AR | Cerberus (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 33$46.72 93.43 coins2.6%2526.20.95×
P250 | Facets (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 17$11.26 22.52 coins1.2%5452.41.03×
P90 | Blind Spot (Factory New)weapon · Mythical23.0%$7.76 15.52 coins3.3%210201.01.04×
Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · classified30.0%$6.04 12.08 coins3.3%244262.20.93×
PP-Bizon | Chemical Green (Factory New)weapon · industrial31.7%$3.04 6.08 coins1.8%290277.11.05×
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryfortune$60.87122 coins$4,8069,611 coins78.95x
★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$60.87122 coins$4,8069,611 coins78.95x
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire$60.87122 coins$3,1876,373 coins52.35x
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire$60.87122 coins$3,1876,373 coins52.35x
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire$60.87122 coins$3,1876,373 coins52.35x
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B$60.87122 coins$7541,507 coins12.38x
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B$60.87122 coins$7541,507 coins12.38x
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4Bkn0x77$60.87122 coins$7541,507 coins12.38x
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B$60.87122 coins$7541,507 coins12.38x
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B$60.87122 coins$7541,507 coins12.38x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
P90 | Blind Spot (Factory New)weapon · Mythical$60.87122 coins$7.7615.52 coins0.13x
Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · classified$60.87122 coins$6.0412.08 coins0.10x
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B$60.87122 coins$7541,507 coins12.38x
Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · classified$60.87122 coins$6.0412.08 coins0.10x
PP-Bizon | Chemical Green (Factory New)weapon · industrial$60.87122 coins$3.046.08 coins0.05x
Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · classified$60.87122 coins$6.0412.08 coins0.10x
PP-Bizon | Chemical Green (Factory New)weapon · industrial$60.87122 coins$3.046.08 coins0.05x
P90 | Blind Spot (Factory New)weapon · Mythicalkruley$60.87122 coins$7.7615.52 coins0.13x
P90 | Blind Spot (Factory New)weapon · Mythical$60.87122 coins$7.7615.52 coins0.13x
PP-Bizon | Chemical Green (Factory New)weapon · industrial$60.87122 coins$3.046.08 coins0.05x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$60.8790.00%12
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 0.2%covert 2.3%#EB4B4B 0.8%classified 31.0%pink 2.0%restricted 3.0%industrial 37.7%Mythical 23.0%best hit $4,806 (78.95x)