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Tropic Gems

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$134.43
269 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $120.99 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
239.04%
10 openings, odds method
Variance
3.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
73.2%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
4 openings · below min
7 days
10 openings · below min
30 days
10 openings · below min
since tracking started
10 openings · below min
89.5%354.3%619.0%

Small sample. 10 openings and 0.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h4435.33%±182.9—odds
7d10239.04%±115.6—odds
30d10239.04%±115.6—odds
All10239.04%±115.6—odds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl1 in 1,000$1,935 3,870 coins1.6%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 11 in 1,000$1,816 3,632 coins1.5%10.0—
★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 500$1,581 3,163 coins2.6%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · rare1 in 273$1,353 2,706 coins4.1%00.0—
★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · gold1 in 192$1,062 2,124 coins4.6%00.1—
★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby1 in 182$1,010 2,020 coins4.6%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · Covert · Ruby1 in 100$873 1,745 coins7.2%10.1—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 100$860 1,721 coins7.1%00.1—
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 31 in 100$809 1,618 coins6.7%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic1 in 50$525 1,050 coins8.7%10.2—
★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald1 in 50$506 1,012 coins8.4%00.2—
★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny1 in 25$323 645 coins10.7%00.4—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 31 in 25$311 622 coins10.3%00.4—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 20$276 552 coins11.4%00.5—
★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20$257 515 coins10.6%00.5—
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff73.2%<$0.01 0.01 coins0.0%77.30.96×
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1Sanityy$134269 coins$1,8163,632 coins13.51x
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · Covert · Rubyfordtransit$134269 coins$8731,745 coins6.49x
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic$134269 coins$5251,050 coins3.90x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$134269 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$134269 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic$134269 coins$5251,050 coins3.90x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1Sanityy$134269 coins$1,8163,632 coins13.51x
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$134269 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$134269 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$134269 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$134269 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$134269 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · Covert · Rubyfordtransit$134269 coins$8731,745 coins6.49x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$13490.00%16
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 17.9%rare 0.4%gold 0.5%Covert 1.0%covert knife 1.0%epic 2.0%sunny 4.0%#4b69ff 73.2%best hit $1,816 (13.51x)