Tropic Roost
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$18.37
36.74 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $16.53 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.19%
969 openings, odds method
Variance
42.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 125
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
97.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 969 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert | 1 in 2,000 | $2,792 5,584 coins | 8.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| Souvenir M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Covert | 1 in 1,000 | $1,383 2,766 coins | 8.4% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 667 | $1,178 2,355 coins | 10.7% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.69× |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Big Game (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 400 | $935 1,870 coins | 14.1% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.24× |
| ★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 400 | $755 1,509 coins | 11.4% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.24× |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 286 | $678 1,357 coins | 14.4% | 7 | 3.4 | 2.06× |
| ★ Flip Knife | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $401 803 coins | 12.1% | 3 | 4.8 | 0.62× |
| Souvenir USP-S | Royal Blue (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrial | 1 in 74 | $250 500 coins | 20.4% | 12 | 13.1 | 0.92× |
| FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 97.0% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 939 | 939.9 | 1.00× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Souvenir M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Covert$18.3736.74 coins$1,3832,766 coins75.30x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$18.3736.74 coins$1,1782,355 coins64.11x
★ Sport Gloves | Big Game (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryMoon1025$18.3736.74 coins$9351,870 coins50.91x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertghost15$18.3736.74 coins$7551,509 coins41.07x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$18.3736.74 coins$7551,509 coins41.07x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$18.3736.74 coins$7551,509 coins41.07x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Sport Gloves | Big Game (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryMoon1025$18.3736.74 coins$9351,870 coins50.91x
Souvenir USP-S | Royal Blue (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$18.3736.74 coins$250500 coins13.61x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $18.37 | 89.99% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.3%Covert 0.1%extraordinary 0.3%industrial 1.4%consumer 97.0%best hit $1,383 (75.30x)