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Tsunami

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$983.26
1,967 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $884.93 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
119.00%
424 openings, odds method
Variance
18.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 41
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
55.5%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
24 openings · below min
7 days
119.00%±41.14424 openings
30 days
119.00%±41.14424 openings
since tracking started
119.00%±41.14424 openings
-0.5%99.8%200.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h2426.33%±172.9—odds
7d424119.00%±41.1+1.4σodds
30d424119.00%±41.1+1.4σodds
All424119.00%±41.1+1.4σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 424 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert1 in 2,500$112K 223,312 coins5.0%10.2—
Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary1 in 1,250$73.5K 147,047 coins6.6%20.3—
Sticker | iBUYPOWER (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary1 in 1,250$72.4K 144,822 coins6.5%00.3—
★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Factory New)gloves · legendary1 in 667$36.3K 72,651 coins6.2%00.6—
★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary1 in 333$18.7K 37,392 coins6.3%11.30.79×
★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary1 in 333$15.1K 30,112 coins5.1%11.30.79×
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 200$9,356 18,711 coins5.3%12.10.47×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald1 in 200$8,862 17,724 coins5.0%12.10.47×
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby1 in 200$8,347 16,693 coins4.7%12.10.47×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert42.0%$1,036 2,071 coins49.1%171178.10.96×
P2000 | Oceanic (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec27.3%$0.06 0.11 coins0.0%120115.81.04×
MAC-10 | Oceanic (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec28.2%$0.04 0.07 coins0.0%125119.81.04×
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert$9831,967 coins$112K223,312 coins113.6x
Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$9831,967 coins$73.5K147,047 coins74.78x
Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$9831,967 coins$73.5K147,047 coins74.78x
★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$9831,967 coins$18.7K37,392 coins19.01x
★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$9831,967 coins$15.1K30,112 coins15.31x
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$9831,967 coins$9,35618,711 coins9.52x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$9831,967 coins$8,86217,724 coins9.01x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$9831,967 coins$8,34716,693 coins8.49x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertpiyeyooo$9831,967 coins$1,0362,071 coins1.05x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$9831,967 coins$1,0362,071 coins1.05x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
MAC-10 | Oceanic (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$9831,967 coins$0.040.07 coins0.00x
P2000 | Oceanic (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$9831,967 coins$0.060.11 coins0.00x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$9831,967 coins$1,0362,071 coins1.05x
P2000 | Oceanic (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$9831,967 coins$0.060.11 coins0.00x
P2000 | Oceanic (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$9831,967 coins$0.060.11 coins0.00x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$9831,967 coins$1,0362,071 coins1.05x
P2000 | Oceanic (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$9831,967 coins$0.060.11 coins0.00x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertpiyeyooo$9831,967 coins$1,0362,071 coins1.05x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$9831,967 coins$1,0362,071 coins1.05x
MAC-10 | Oceanic (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$9831,967 coins$0.040.07 coins0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$98390.00%12
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 43.5%legendary 0.3%extraordinary 0.6%mil spec 55.5%best hit $112K (113.6x)