Twilight Gamma
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$32.73
65.46 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $29.45 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
171.55%
38 openings, odds method
Variance
7.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 22
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 38 openings and 1.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 38 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)weapon · red · Emerald$32.7365.46 coins$466933 coins14.25x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $32.73 | 89.99% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 9.4%#EB4B4B 0.2%#ffd700 1.0%red 0.2%gold 0.7%sunny 0.7%covert knife 3.4%Immortal 3.0%#4b69ff 81.4%best hit —