Ultimate
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$11.60
23.2 coins
Advertised RTP
89.97%
EV $10.44 from 13 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.92%
216 openings, odds method
Variance
4.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 216 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Factory New)weapon · restrictedDemonDeeeeek$11.6023.2 coins$2.034.06 coins0.18x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.97%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $11.60 | 89.97% | 13 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 3.3%mil spec 2.5%Industrial Grade 1.5%consumer 2.0%classified 8.5%#87c7ff 4.5%restricted 67.7%#8847ff 10.0%best hit —