Ultra Gamble
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$259.51
519 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $233.55 from 4 items
Observed RTP, 30d
—
no counted openings
Variance
4.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
No counted openings yetOpenings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $2,545 5,091 coins | 54.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · Phase 1 | 15.0% | $500 1,000 coins | 32.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Charm | POP Artcharm · #8847ff | 25.0% | $125 250 coins | 13.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 55.0% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
No history yet
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $260 | 90.00% | 4 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 5.0%other 15.0%#8847ff 25.0%#4b69ff 55.0%