Undercover

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$12.77

25.54 coins

Advertised RTP

89.97%

EV $11.49 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

74.39%

1,777 openings, odds method

Variance

20.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 18

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

79.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

62.00%±81.12118 openings

7 days

75.88%±21.661,655 openings

30 days

74.39%±20.901,777 openings

since tracking started

74.39%±20.901,777 openings

-0.5%71.8%144.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	118	62.00%±81.1	−0.7σ	odds
7d	1,655	75.88%±21.7	−1.3σ	odds
30d	1,777	74.39%±20.9	−1.5σ	odds
All	1,777	74.39%±20.9	−1.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,777 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · Knives · Phase 4	1 in 2,000	$1,505 3,010 coins	6.5%	0	0.9	—
Sticker \| NiKo (Gold) \| Krakow 2017sticker	1 in 1,250	$1,253 2,507 coins	8.7%	0	1.4	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,000	$685 1,371 coins	6.0%	2	1.8	1.13×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 250	$250 500 coins	8.7%	8	7.1	1.13×
Souvenir P2000 \| Granite Marbleized (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon	1 in 125	$122 244 coins	8.5%	11	14.2	0.77×
USP-S \| Printstream (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 100	$77.84 156 coins	6.8%	12	17.8	0.68×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)weapon · covert · Phase 4	1 in 33	$44.32 88.63 coins	11.6%	59	53.3	1.11×
AWP \| Corticera (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$25.31 50.62 coins	8.8%	66	71.1	0.93×
FAMAS \| Contrast Spray (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 20	$24.98 49.95 coins	10.9%	82	88.9	0.92×
Galil AR \| Shattered (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 17	$13.86 27.71 coins	7.2%	114	106.6	1.07×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 14	$9.27 18.53 coins	5.6%	120	124.4	0.96×
Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 13	$6.76 13.51 coins	4.7%	150	142.2	1.06×
Tec-9 \| Orange Murano (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade	1 in 11	$4.61 9.21 coins	3.6%	153	159.9	0.96×
MP5-SD \| Bamboo Garden (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade	10.0%	$2.04 4.07 coins	1.8%	182	177.7	1.02×
CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	11.0%	$0.55 1.09 coins	0.5%	206	195.5	1.05×
SCAR-20 \| Sand Mesh (Factory New)weapon · consumer	34.6%	$0.01 0.02 coins	0.0%	612	614.3	1.00×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Blue Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$12.7725.54 coins$6851,371 coins53.68x4d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Blue Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$12.7725.54 coins$6851,371 coins53.68x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

CZ75-Auto | Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$12.7725.54 coins$0.551.09 coins0.04x2h

Galil AR | Shattered (Factory New)weapon · blue$12.7725.54 coins$13.8627.71 coins1.08x2h

SCAR-20 | Sand Mesh (Factory New)weapon · consumer$12.7725.54 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x2h

CZ75-Auto | Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$12.7725.54 coins$0.551.09 coins0.04x2h

MP5-SD | Bamboo Garden (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade$12.7725.54 coins$2.044.07 coins0.16x2h

Tec-9 | Orange Murano (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade$12.7725.54 coins$4.619.21 coins0.36x2h

SCAR-20 | Sand Mesh (Factory New)weapon · consumer$12.7725.54 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x10h

Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)weapon · covert · Phase 4$12.7725.54 coins$44.3288.63 coins3.47x10h

CZ75-Auto | Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$12.7725.54 coins$0.551.09 coins0.04x10h

SCAR-20 | Sand Mesh (Factory New)weapon · consumer$12.7725.54 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x10h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.97%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$12.77	89.97%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedKnives 0.1%other 0.9%covert knife 0.1%covert 3.4%red 8.0%classified 12.0%consumer 39.6%blue 6.0%Industrial Grade 9.0%Consumer Grade 10.0%restricted 11.0%best hit $685 (53.68x)