Underworld
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$28.27
56.54 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $25.44 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
67.05%
34 openings, odds method
Variance
4.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 34 openings and 2.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 34 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3 | 1 in 100 | $513 1,025 coins | 20.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| ★ Falchion Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal | 1 in 50 | $147 294 coins | 11.6% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| Souvenir M4A1-S | Nitro (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon | 1 in 50 | $132 263 coins | 10.3% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| ★ Falchion Knife | Scorched (Factory New)knife · knifes | 1 in 50 | $129 258 coins | 10.1% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| M4A1-S | Moss Quartz (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 33.0% | $29.07 58.14 coins | 37.7% | 15 | 11.2 | 1.34× |
| CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New)weapon · #eb4b4b | 20.0% | $7.60 15.19 coins | 6.0% | 7 | 6.8 | 1.03× |
| AK-47 | Slate (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $5.22 10.44 coins | 4.1% | 5 | 6.8 | 0.74× |
| AUG | Tom Cat (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 20.0% | $0.02 0.04 coins | 0.0% | 6 | 6.8 | 0.88× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Falchion Knife | Scorched (Factory New)knife · knifesaxel02legmail$28.2756.54 coins$129258 coins4.56x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $28.27 | 89.99% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.0%Immortal 2.0%other 2.0%knifes 2.0%industrial 33.0%#eb4b4b 20.0%restricted 20.0%Mil Spec Grade 20.0%best hit —