Upgrader
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$5.19
10.37 coins
Advertised RTP
89.95%
EV $4.66 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.57%
511 openings, odds method
Variance
1.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
23.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
77.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 511 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade | 1 in 100 | $50.13 100 coins | 10.7% | 6 | 5.1 | 1.17× |
| SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 1 in 50 | $25.16 50.31 coins | 10.8% | 13 | 10.2 | 1.27× |
| MAC-10 | Toybox (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $10.02 20.04 coins | 10.7% | 24 | 25.6 | 0.94× |
| Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $7.51 15.01 coins | 24.1% | 90 | 76.6 | 1.17× |
| G3SG1 | Demeter (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 25.0% | $5.02 10.04 coins | 26.9% | 113 | 127.8 | 0.88× |
| MAC-10 | Aloha (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 20.0% | $2.53 5.06 coins | 10.8% | 98 | 102.2 | 0.96× |
| Five-SeveN | Boost Protocol (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 14.5% | $1.26 2.52 coins | 3.9% | 82 | 74.1 | 1.11× |
| AUG | Ricochet (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 17.5% | $0.51 1.02 coins | 1.9% | 85 | 89.4 | 0.95× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$5.1910.37 coins$50.13100 coins9.67x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.95%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5.19 | 89.95% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedIndustrial Grade 1.0%Rare 2.0%classified 5.0%covert 15.0%mil spec 62.5%restricted 14.5%best hit —