Valentine
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$11.07
22.13 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $9.96 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.18%
1,761 openings, odds method
Variance
16.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 26
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
89.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,761 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$11.0722.13 coins$1,0102,020 coins91.28x
Latest dropsnewest first
SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffGrimViper3313$11.0722.13 coins$0.010.03 coins0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $11.07 | 89.99% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 2.8%extraordinary 0.0%epic 0.0%sunny 1.0%mil spec 3.5%restricted 3.0%#4b69ff 89.6%best hit $1,010 (91.28x)